Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta
Model pick: Recoleta (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.52
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sportivo Ameliano | Recoleta |
|---|
| League position | #9 (137 pts) | #7 (87 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 2.4 |
*Sportivo Ameliano shown at home, Recoleta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sportivo Ameliano — last 5
DDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Recoleta — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sportivo Ameliano (home) | Recoleta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Elvio Vera (6) | Allan Wlk (9) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 1.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sportivo Ameliano or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Recoleta or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet | 22% |
| Recoleta clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Recoleta is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Recoleta edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta — FAQ
Who will win Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta?
Our statistical model makes Recoleta the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 33%, draw 26%, Recoleta 40%.
Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.52 for Recoleta — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Recoleta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Sportivo Ameliano or draw is 58%.