Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo
Model pick: 2 de Mayo (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.39 – 1.36
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 2 de Mayo |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #8 (138 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
*Sportivo San Lorenzo shown at home, 2 de Mayo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
2 de Mayo — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sportivo San Lorenzo (home) | 2 de Mayo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 40% |
| Top scorer | – | Wilson Ayala (1) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.39 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (24%) |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — 2 de Mayo or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 26% |
| 2 de Mayo clean sheet | 68% |
🎯 Our Verdict
2 de Mayo is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, 2 de Mayo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo — FAQ
Who will win Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo?
Our statistical model makes 2 de Mayo the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo 13%, draw 29%, 2 de Mayo 58%.
Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo?
Expected goals are 0.39 for Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.36 for 2 de Mayo — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (24%). Double chance for Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw is 38%.