Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Jul 30, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní
Model pick: Club Guaraní (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.86
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | Club Guaraní |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #3 (178 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Sportivo San Lorenzo shown at home, Club Guaraní shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
DDDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Club Guaraní — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sportivo San Lorenzo (home) | Club Guaraní (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 42% |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 1.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Club Guaraní or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 16% |
| Club Guaraní clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Club Guaraní is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Club Guaraní edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní — FAQ
Who will win Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní?
Our statistical model makes Club Guaraní the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo 19%, draw 24%, Club Guaraní 57%.
Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.86 for Club Guaraní — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club Guaraní?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw is 39%.