Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción
Model pick: Nacional Asunción (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.48 – 1.37
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | Nacional Asunción |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #5 (154 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Sportivo San Lorenzo shown at home, Nacional Asunción shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Nacional Asunción — last 5
WLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sportivo San Lorenzo (home) | Nacional Asunción (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Lorenzo Melgarejo (4) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.48 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Nacional Asunción or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 25% |
| Nacional Asunción clean sheet | 62% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nacional Asunción is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Nacional Asunción edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción — FAQ
Who will win Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción?
Our statistical model makes Nacional Asunción the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo 15%, draw 29%, Nacional Asunción 55%.
Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción?
Expected goals are 0.48 for Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.37 for Nacional Asunción — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asunción?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw is 41%.