SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund
Model pick: SpVgg Herne Horsthausen (98%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
98%
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen
Expected goals: 8.72 – 1.07
Total goals: 9.8
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | ASC 09 Dortmund |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 4.0 |
*SpVgg Herne Horsthausen shown at home, ASC 09 Dortmund shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — last 5
LW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
ASC 09 Dortmund — last 5
LL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen (home) | ASC 09 Dortmund (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (8.72 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 8-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — SpVgg Herne Horsthausen or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — ASC 09 Dortmund or draw (X2) | 1% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| SpVgg Herne Horsthausen clean sheet | 34% |
| ASC 09 Dortmund clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen is the model's most likely outcome at
98%. SpVgg Herne Horsthausen are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 9.8, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund — FAQ
Who will win SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund?
Our statistical model makes SpVgg Herne Horsthausen the most likely result at 98%. Full probabilities: SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 98%, draw 1%, ASC 09 Dortmund 1%.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund?
Expected goals are 8.72 for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen and 1.07 for ASC 09 Dortmund — about 9.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs ASC 09 Dortmund?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 8-1 (10%). Double chance for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen or draw is 100%.