St. Gallen vs Thun Prediction & Preview
Super League (Switzerland) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
St. Gallen vs Thun
Model pick: St. Gallen (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.55
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Gallen | Thun |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #9 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 2.8 |
*St. Gallen shown at home, Thun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Gallen — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Thun — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Gallen (home) | Thun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% |
| Top scorer | Carlo Boukhalfa (12) | Christopher Ibayi (10) |
Super League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Super League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.81 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — St. Gallen or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Thun or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| St. Gallen clean sheet | 21% |
| Thun clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Gallen is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. St. Gallen are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ St. Gallen vs Thun — FAQ
Who will win St. Gallen vs Thun?
Our statistical model makes St. Gallen the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: St. Gallen 52%, draw 23%, Thun 25%.
Will both teams score in St. Gallen vs Thun?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Gallen vs Thun?
Expected goals are 1.81 for St. Gallen and 1.55 for Thun — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Gallen vs Thun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for St. Gallen or draw is 67%.