St. Johnstone vs Celtic Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
St. Johnstone vs Celtic
Model pick: Celtic (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.7 – 2.31
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Johnstone | Celtic |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #21 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*St. Johnstone shown at home, Celtic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Johnstone — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Celtic — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Johnstone (home) | Celtic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 68% |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.7 vs 2.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — St. Johnstone or draw (1X) | 26% |
| Double chance — Celtic or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| St. Johnstone clean sheet | 10% |
| Celtic clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celtic is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Despite playing away, Celtic edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ St. Johnstone vs Celtic — FAQ
Who will win St. Johnstone vs Celtic?
Our statistical model makes Celtic the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: St. Johnstone 15%, draw 21%, Celtic 64%.
Will both teams score in St. Johnstone vs Celtic?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Johnstone vs Celtic?
Expected goals are 0.7 for St. Johnstone and 2.31 for Celtic — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Johnstone vs Celtic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for St. Johnstone or draw is 26%.