St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Model pick: St. Johnstone (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Johnstone | Kilmarnock |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #5 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*St. Johnstone shown at home, Kilmarnock shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Johnstone — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Kilmarnock — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Johnstone (home) | Kilmarnock (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Tyreece John-Jules (8) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — St. Johnstone or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| St. Johnstone clean sheet | 31% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Johnstone is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. St. Johnstone are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock — FAQ
Who will win St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Our statistical model makes St. Johnstone the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: St. Johnstone 40%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 32%.
Will both teams score in St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
Expected goals are 1.16 for St. Johnstone and 1.17 for Kilmarnock — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for St. Johnstone or draw is 64%.