St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids
Model pick: St. Louis City (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.33
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Louis City | Colorado Rapids |
|---|
| League position | #10 (19 pts) | #13 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*St. Louis City shown at home, Colorado Rapids shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Louis City — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Colorado Rapids — last 5
DLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Louis City (home) | Colorado Rapids (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-1-6 in 9 (1.1 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Martin Ojeda (11) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.95 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — St. Louis City or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Colorado Rapids or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 26% |
| Colorado Rapids clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Louis City is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. St. Louis City are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids — FAQ
Who will win St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
Our statistical model makes St. Louis City the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: St. Louis City 49%, draw 24%, Colorado Rapids 27%.
Will both teams score in St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
Expected goals are 1.95 for St. Louis City and 1.33 for Colorado Rapids — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for St. Louis City or draw is 74%.