St. Louis City vs Dallas Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
St. Louis City vs Dallas
Model pick: St. Louis City (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 1.3
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Louis City | Dallas |
|---|
| League position | #10 (19 pts) | #5 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.3 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
*St. Louis City shown at home, Dallas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Louis City — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Dallas — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Louis City (home) | Dallas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-0-2 in 6 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Nicolas Mercau (13) | Petar Musa (16) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — St. Louis City or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Dallas or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 27% |
| Dallas clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Louis City is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. St. Louis City are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ St. Louis City vs Dallas — FAQ
Who will win St. Louis City vs Dallas?
Our statistical model makes St. Louis City the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: St. Louis City 48%, draw 25%, Dallas 27%.
Will both teams score in St. Louis City vs Dallas?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Louis City vs Dallas?
Expected goals are 1.7 for St. Louis City and 1.3 for Dallas — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Louis City vs Dallas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for St. Louis City or draw is 71%.