St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo
Model pick: St. Louis City (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Louis City | Houston Dynamo |
|---|
| League position | #10 (19 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
*St. Louis City shown at home, Houston Dynamo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Louis City — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Houston Dynamo — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Louis City (home) | Houston Dynamo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-1-4 in 7 (1.6 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Nicolas Mercau (13) | Guilherme (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — St. Louis City or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Houston Dynamo or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 30% |
| Houston Dynamo clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Louis City is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. St. Louis City are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo — FAQ
Who will win St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
Our statistical model makes St. Louis City the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: St. Louis City 45%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 29%.
Will both teams score in St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
Expected goals are 1.52 for St. Louis City and 1.21 for Houston Dynamo — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for St. Louis City or draw is 70%.