St. Mirren vs Celtic Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
St. Mirren vs Celtic
Model pick: Celtic (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.79 – 2.09
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Mirren | Celtic |
|---|
| League position | #2 (7 pts) | #21 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.8 | 3.0 / 1.4 |
*St. Mirren shown at home, Celtic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Mirren — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Celtic — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Mirren (home) | Celtic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 68% |
| Top scorer | Mikael Mandron (4) | – |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.79 vs 2.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (12%) |
| Double chance — St. Mirren or draw (1X) | 33% |
| Double chance — Celtic or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| St. Mirren clean sheet | 12% |
| Celtic clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celtic is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Despite playing away, Celtic edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ St. Mirren vs Celtic — FAQ
Who will win St. Mirren vs Celtic?
Our statistical model makes Celtic the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: St. Mirren 13%, draw 21%, Celtic 66%.
Will both teams score in St. Mirren vs Celtic?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Mirren vs Celtic?
Expected goals are 0.79 for St. Mirren and 2.09 for Celtic — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Mirren vs Celtic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (12%). Double chance for St. Mirren or draw is 33%.