St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone
Model pick: St. Mirren (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Mirren | St. Johnstone |
|---|
| League position | #1 (3 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*St. Mirren shown at home, St. Johnstone shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Mirren — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Johnstone — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Mirren (home) | St. Johnstone (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Mikael Mandron (4) | – |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — St. Mirren or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — St. Johnstone or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| St. Mirren clean sheet | 44% |
| St. Johnstone clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Mirren is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. St. Mirren are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone — FAQ
Who will win St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone?
Our statistical model makes St. Mirren the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: St. Mirren 44%, draw 28%, St. Johnstone 28%.
Will both teams score in St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone?
Expected goals are 1.29 for St. Mirren and 0.82 for St. Johnstone — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for St. Mirren or draw is 76%.