St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City
Model pick: St Patrick's Athletic (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St Patrick's Athletic | Derry City |
|---|
| League position | #2 (43 pts) | #6 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 69% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*St Patrick's Athletic shown at home, Derry City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St Patrick's Athletic — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Derry City — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St Patrick's Athletic (home) | Derry City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 9-2-2 in 13 (2.2 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-6-5 in 12 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — St Patrick's Athletic or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Derry City or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| St Patrick's Athletic clean sheet | 38% |
| Derry City clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St Patrick's Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. St Patrick's Athletic are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City — FAQ
Who will win St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City?
Our statistical model makes St Patrick's Athletic the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: St Patrick's Athletic 49%, draw 28%, Derry City 23%.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City?
Expected goals are 1.3 for St Patrick's Athletic and 0.98 for Derry City — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for St Patrick's Athletic or draw is 72%.