St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford
Model pick: St Patrick's Athletic (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.82 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St Patrick's Athletic | Waterford |
|---|
| League position | #2 (50 pts) | #8 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 64% | 14% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
*St Patrick's Athletic shown at home, Waterford shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St Patrick's Athletic — last 5
DDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Waterford — last 5
DWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St Patrick's Athletic (home) | Waterford (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 9-3-2 in 14 (2.1 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-4-8 in 14 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.82 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — St Patrick's Athletic or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Waterford or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| St Patrick's Athletic clean sheet | 43% |
| Waterford clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St Patrick's Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. St Patrick's Athletic are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford — FAQ
Who will win St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford?
Our statistical model makes St Patrick's Athletic the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: St Patrick's Athletic 65%, draw 21%, Waterford 15%.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford?
Expected goals are 1.82 for St Patrick's Athletic and 0.84 for Waterford — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St Patrick's Athletic vs Waterford?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for St Patrick's Athletic or draw is 83%.