St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck
Model pick: Phonix Lubeck (91%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.33 – 3.78
Total goals: 4.1
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Pauli II | Phonix Lubeck |
|---|
| League position | #14 (3 pts) | #5 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*St. Pauli II shown at home, Phonix Lubeck shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Pauli II — last 5
DLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Phonix Lubeck — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Pauli II (home) | Phonix Lubeck (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.33 vs 3.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (15%) |
| Double chance — St. Pauli II or draw (1X) | 6% |
| Double chance — Phonix Lubeck or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| St. Pauli II clean sheet | 2% |
| Phonix Lubeck clean sheet | 72% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Phonix Lubeck is the model's most likely outcome at
91%. Despite playing away, Phonix Lubeck edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.1, this shapes as an open game (67% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck — FAQ
Who will win St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck?
Our statistical model makes Phonix Lubeck the most likely result at 91%. Full probabilities: St. Pauli II 2%, draw 7%, Phonix Lubeck 91%.
Will both teams score in St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck?
Expected goals are 0.33 for St. Pauli II and 3.78 for Phonix Lubeck — about 4.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Pauli II vs Phonix Lubeck?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (15%). Double chance for St. Pauli II or draw is 6%.