St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II
Model pick: Draw (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.25 – 0.38
Total goals: 0.6
Over 2.5: 12%
Both teams score: 25%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Pauli II | Werder Bremen II |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #14 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.8 | 2.2 / 2.8 |
*St. Pauli II shown at home, Werder Bremen II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Pauli II — last 5
WDDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Werder Bremen II — last 5
WLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Pauli II (home) | Werder Bremen II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (3.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.25 vs 0.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (53%) |
| Double chance — St. Pauli II or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Werder Bremen II or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 42% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| St. Pauli II clean sheet | 68% |
| Werder Bremen II clean sheet | 78% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (88% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II — FAQ
Who will win St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: St. Pauli II 18%, draw 54%, Werder Bremen II 28%.
Will both teams score in St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II?
The model gives a 25% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II?
Expected goals are 0.25 for St. Pauli II and 0.38 for Werder Bremen II — about 0.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Pauli II vs Werder Bremen II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (53%). Double chance for St. Pauli II or draw is 74%.