St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA 2 (GERMANY)
St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth
Model pick: St. Pauli (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.06 – 1.12
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| St. Pauli | Greuther Fürth |
|---|
| League position | #18 (26 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 0.8 |
*St. Pauli shown at home, Greuther Fürth shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
St. Pauli — last 5
WWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Greuther Fürth — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | St. Pauli (home) | Greuther Fürth (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Felix Klaus (8) |
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Bundesliga 2 (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.06 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — St. Pauli or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Greuther Fürth or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| St. Pauli clean sheet | 33% |
| Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
St. Pauli is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. St. Pauli are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth — FAQ
Who will win St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model makes St. Pauli the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: St. Pauli 52%, draw 24%, Greuther Fürth 24%.
Will both teams score in St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth?
Expected goals are 2.06 for St. Pauli and 1.12 for Greuther Fürth — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in St. Pauli vs Greuther Fürth?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for St. Pauli or draw is 80%.