Stabæk vs Hødd Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Stabæk vs Hødd
Model pick: Stabæk (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.04 – 1.04
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stabæk | Hødd |
|---|
| League position | #4 (27 pts) | #6 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 83% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Stabæk shown at home, Hødd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stabæk — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Hødd — last 5
LLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stabæk (home) | Hødd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-0-1 in 6 (2.5 / 0.8 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.3 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.04 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Stabæk or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Hødd or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Stabæk clean sheet | 35% |
| Hødd clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabæk is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Stabæk are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stabæk vs Hødd — FAQ
Who will win Stabæk vs Hødd?
Our statistical model makes Stabæk the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Stabæk 56%, draw 23%, Hødd 21%.
Will both teams score in Stabæk vs Hødd?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stabæk vs Hødd?
Expected goals are 2.04 for Stabæk and 1.04 for Hødd — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stabæk vs Hødd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Stabæk or draw is 81%.