Stabæk vs Lyn Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Stabæk vs Lyn
Model pick: Stabæk (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.74
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stabæk | Lyn |
|---|
| League position | #1 (33 pts) | #13 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 86% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Stabæk shown at home, Lyn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stabæk — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Lyn — last 5
LLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stabæk (home) | Lyn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-1 in 7 (3.0 / 0.7 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 1.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Stabæk or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Lyn or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Stabæk clean sheet | 18% |
| Lyn clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabæk is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Stabæk are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stabæk vs Lyn — FAQ
Who will win Stabæk vs Lyn?
Our statistical model makes Stabæk the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Stabæk 52%, draw 22%, Lyn 26%.
Will both teams score in Stabæk vs Lyn?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stabæk vs Lyn?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Stabæk and 1.74 for Lyn — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stabæk vs Lyn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Stabæk or draw is 58%.