Stabæk vs Moss Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Stabæk vs Moss
Model pick: Stabæk (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.53 – 1.35
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stabæk | Moss |
|---|
| League position | #3 (42 pts) | #14 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.2 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 89% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Stabæk shown at home, Moss shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stabæk — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Moss — last 5
LDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stabæk (home) | Moss (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-0-1 in 9 (3.2 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-0-7 in 10 (1.6 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 66% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.53 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Stabæk or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Moss or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Stabæk clean sheet | 26% |
| Moss clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabæk is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Stabæk are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stabæk vs Moss — FAQ
Who will win Stabæk vs Moss?
Our statistical model makes Stabæk the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Stabæk 59%, draw 20%, Moss 21%.
Will both teams score in Stabæk vs Moss?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stabæk vs Moss?
Expected goals are 2.53 for Stabæk and 1.35 for Moss — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stabæk vs Moss?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Stabæk or draw is 81%.