Stabaek 2 vs Vag Prediction & Preview
3 Divisjon (Norway) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 DIVISJON (NORWAY)
Stabaek 2 vs Vag
Model pick: Stabaek 2 (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.49 – 1.11
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stabaek 2 | Vag |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
*Stabaek 2 shown at home, Vag shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stabaek 2 — last 5
DD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Vag — last 5
DL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stabaek 2 (home) | Vag (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
3 Divisjon (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 17%
Away wins: 39%
Over 2.5: 80%
BTTS: 74%
Use these 3 Divisjon (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.49 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Stabaek 2 or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Vag or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Stabaek 2 clean sheet | 33% |
| Vag clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabaek 2 is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Stabaek 2 are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stabaek 2 vs Vag — FAQ
Who will win Stabaek 2 vs Vag?
Our statistical model makes Stabaek 2 the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Stabaek 2 63%, draw 20%, Vag 18%.
Will both teams score in Stabaek 2 vs Vag?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stabaek 2 vs Vag?
Expected goals are 2.49 for Stabaek 2 and 1.11 for Vag — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stabaek 2 vs Vag?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Stabaek 2 or draw is 85%.