Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge
Model pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Etoile Carouge |
|---|
| League position | #1 (10 pts) | #6 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
*Stade Lausanne-Ouchy shown at home, Etoile Carouge shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Etoile Carouge — last 5
WDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home) | Etoile Carouge (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Etoile Carouge or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet | 34% |
| Etoile Carouge clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge — FAQ
Who will win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge?
Our statistical model makes Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 45%, draw 27%, Etoile Carouge 28%.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.07 for Etoile Carouge — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Etoile Carouge?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw is 73%.