Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona
Model pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.26
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Rapperswil-Jona |
|---|
| League position | #3 (4 pts) | #6 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Stade Lausanne-Ouchy shown at home, Rapperswil-Jona shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Rapperswil-Jona — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home) | Rapperswil-Jona (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 55% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Rapperswil-Jona or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet | 28% |
| Rapperswil-Jona clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona — FAQ
Who will win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona?
Our statistical model makes Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 59%, draw 21%, Rapperswil-Jona 20%.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.26 for Rapperswil-Jona — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Rapperswil-Jona?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw is 76%.