Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge
Model pick: Etoile Carouge (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.44
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stade Nyonnais | Etoile Carouge |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #5 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Stade Nyonnais shown at home, Etoile Carouge shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stade Nyonnais — last 5
DLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Etoile Carouge — last 5
WLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stade Nyonnais (home) | Etoile Carouge (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 1.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Stade Nyonnais or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Etoile Carouge or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Stade Nyonnais clean sheet | 24% |
| Etoile Carouge clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Etoile Carouge is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Etoile Carouge edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge — FAQ
Who will win Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
Our statistical model makes Etoile Carouge the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Stade Nyonnais 28%, draw 25%, Etoile Carouge 47%.
Will both teams score in Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Stade Nyonnais and 1.44 for Etoile Carouge — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile Carouge?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Stade Nyonnais or draw is 52%.