Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg
Model pick: Stadtallendorf (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.05
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stadtallendorf | VfB Marburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Stadtallendorf shown at home, VfB Marburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stadtallendorf — last 5
DDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
VfB Marburg — last 5
WDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stadtallendorf (home) | VfB Marburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.59
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Stadtallendorf or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — VfB Marburg or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Stadtallendorf clean sheet | 35% |
| VfB Marburg clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stadtallendorf is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Stadtallendorf are backed at home, where they average 3.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg — FAQ
Who will win Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg?
Our statistical model makes Stadtallendorf the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Stadtallendorf 35%, draw 30%, VfB Marburg 34%.
Will both teams score in Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Stadtallendorf and 1.05 for VfB Marburg — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stadtallendorf vs VfB Marburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Stadtallendorf or draw is 65%.