Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik
Model pick: Avia Swidnik (76%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.43 – 2.35
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stal Stalowa Wola | Avia Swidnik |
|---|
| League position | #12 (3 pts) | #1 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.8 / 1.2 |
*Stal Stalowa Wola shown at home, Avia Swidnik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stal Stalowa Wola — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Avia Swidnik — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stal Stalowa Wola (home) | Avia Swidnik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 67% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.43 vs 2.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (17%) |
| Double chance — Stal Stalowa Wola or draw (1X) | 19% |
| Double chance — Avia Swidnik or draw (X2) | 95% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Stal Stalowa Wola clean sheet | 10% |
| Avia Swidnik clean sheet | 65% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Avia Swidnik is the model's most likely outcome at
76%. Despite playing away, Avia Swidnik edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik — FAQ
Who will win Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik?
Our statistical model makes Avia Swidnik the most likely result at 76%. Full probabilities: Stal Stalowa Wola 7%, draw 17%, Avia Swidnik 76%.
Will both teams score in Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik?
Expected goals are 0.43 for Stal Stalowa Wola and 2.35 for Avia Swidnik — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Swidnik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (17%). Double chance for Stal Stalowa Wola or draw is 19%.