Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec
Model pick: Star Starachowice (84%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.26 – 0.53
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Star Starachowice | Czarni Polaniec |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Star Starachowice shown at home, Czarni Polaniec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Star Starachowice — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Czarni Polaniec — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Star Starachowice (home) | Czarni Polaniec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.26 vs 0.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Star Starachowice or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Czarni Polaniec or draw (X2) | 12% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Star Starachowice clean sheet | 59% |
| Czarni Polaniec clean sheet | 4% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Star Starachowice is the model's most likely outcome at
84%. Star Starachowice are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec — FAQ
Who will win Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
Our statistical model makes Star Starachowice the most likely result at 84%. Full probabilities: Star Starachowice 84%, draw 11%, Czarni Polaniec 5%.
Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
Expected goals are 3.26 for Star Starachowice and 0.53 for Czarni Polaniec — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (13%). Double chance for Star Starachowice or draw is 97%.