Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw
Model pick: Jaroslaw (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 2.05
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Star Starachowice | Jaroslaw |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Star Starachowice shown at home, Jaroslaw shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Star Starachowice — last 5
LDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Jaroslaw — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Star Starachowice (home) | Jaroslaw (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 2.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Star Starachowice or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Jaroslaw or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Star Starachowice clean sheet | 13% |
| Jaroslaw clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jaroslaw is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Jaroslaw edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw — FAQ
Who will win Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw?
Our statistical model makes Jaroslaw the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Star Starachowice 27%, draw 23%, Jaroslaw 50%.
Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw?
Expected goals are 1.38 for Star Starachowice and 2.05 for Jaroslaw — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Star Starachowice vs Jaroslaw?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Star Starachowice or draw is 47%.