Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik
Model pick: Stargard Szczeciński (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.24 – 0.98
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stargard Szczeciński | Kotwica Kornik |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Stargard Szczeciński shown at home, Kotwica Kornik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stargard Szczeciński — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Kotwica Kornik — last 5
LDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stargard Szczeciński (home) | Kotwica Kornik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 25% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.24 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-0 (8%) |
| Double chance — Stargard Szczeciński or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Kotwica Kornik or draw (X2) | 11% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet | 38% |
| Kotwica Kornik clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stargard Szczeciński is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. Stargard Szczeciński are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik — FAQ
Who will win Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik?
Our statistical model makes Stargard Szczeciński the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: Stargard Szczeciński 85%, draw 9%, Kotwica Kornik 6%.
Will both teams score in Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik?
Expected goals are 4.24 for Stargard Szczeciński and 0.98 for Kotwica Kornik — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stargard Szczeciński vs Kotwica Kornik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-0 (8%). Double chance for Stargard Szczeciński or draw is 96%.