Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II
Model pick: Stargard Szczeciński (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 0.59
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stargard Szczeciński | Lech Poznań II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Stargard Szczeciński shown at home, Lech Poznań II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stargard Szczeciński — last 5
LWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Lech Poznań II — last 5
LWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stargard Szczeciński (home) | Lech Poznań II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 0.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Stargard Szczeciński or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Lech Poznań II or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet | 55% |
| Lech Poznań II clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stargard Szczeciński is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Stargard Szczeciński are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II — FAQ
Who will win Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II?
Our statistical model makes Stargard Szczeciński the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Stargard Szczeciński 42%, draw 35%, Lech Poznań II 23%.
Will both teams score in Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Stargard Szczeciński and 0.59 for Lech Poznań II — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (21%). Double chance for Stargard Szczeciński or draw is 78%.