Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino
Model pick: Stargard Szczeciński (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.5 – 1.53
Total goals: 4.0
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stargard Szczeciński | Luzino |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Stargard Szczeciński shown at home, Luzino shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stargard Szczeciński — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Luzino — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stargard Szczeciński (home) | Luzino (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.5 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Stargard Szczeciński or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Luzino or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet | 22% |
| Luzino clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stargard Szczeciński is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Stargard Szczeciński are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.0, this shapes as an open game (67% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino — FAQ
Who will win Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino?
Our statistical model makes Stargard Szczeciński the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Stargard Szczeciński 55%, draw 21%, Luzino 24%.
Will both teams score in Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino?
Expected goals are 2.5 for Stargard Szczeciński and 1.53 for Luzino — about 4.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Stargard Szczeciński or draw is 77%.