Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton
Model pick: Stenhousemuir (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stenhousemuir | Greenock Morton |
|---|
| League position | #5 (1 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.6 |
*Stenhousemuir shown at home, Greenock Morton shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stenhousemuir — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Greenock Morton — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stenhousemuir (home) | Greenock Morton (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 46% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Stenhousemuir or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Greenock Morton or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Stenhousemuir clean sheet | 32% |
| Greenock Morton clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stenhousemuir is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Stenhousemuir are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton — FAQ
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton?
Our statistical model makes Stenhousemuir the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Stenhousemuir 40%, draw 29%, Greenock Morton 31%.
Will both teams score in Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Stenhousemuir and 1.14 for Greenock Morton — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Stenhousemuir or draw is 65%.