Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT
Model pick: Inverness CT (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 0.89
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stenhousemuir | Inverness CT |
|---|
| League position | #1 (7 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Stenhousemuir shown at home, Inverness CT shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stenhousemuir — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 17% of home games go over 2.5.
Inverness CT — last 5
WDDLD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stenhousemuir (home) | Inverness CT (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 51% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Stenhousemuir or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Inverness CT or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Stenhousemuir clean sheet | 41% |
| Inverness CT clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Inverness CT is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Inverness CT edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT — FAQ
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT?
Our statistical model makes Inverness CT the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Stenhousemuir 30%, draw 29%, Inverness CT 42%.
Will both teams score in Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Stenhousemuir and 0.89 for Inverness CT — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Stenhousemuir or draw is 72%.