Östersunds FK vs Brage Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Östersunds FK vs Brage
Model pick: Östersunds FK (36%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Östersunds FK | Brage |
|---|
| League position | #4 (35 pts) | #14 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 2.8 |
*Östersunds FK shown at home, Brage shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Östersunds FK — last 5
WDWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Brage — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Östersunds FK (home) | Brage (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-1 in 10 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-2-6 in 11 (1.2 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Felix Horberg (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Östersunds FK or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Brage or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Östersunds FK clean sheet | 27% |
| Brage clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Östersunds FK is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Östersunds FK are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Östersunds FK vs Brage — FAQ
Who will win Östersunds FK vs Brage?
Our statistical model makes Östersunds FK the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Östersunds FK 36%, draw 27%, Brage 36%.
Will both teams score in Östersunds FK vs Brage?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Östersunds FK vs Brage?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Östersunds FK and 1.32 for Brage — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Östersunds FK vs Brage?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Östersunds FK or draw is 63%.