Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall
Model pick: Östersunds FK (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Östersunds FK | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|
| League position | #4 (29 pts) | #16 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 2.4 |
*Östersunds FK shown at home, GIF Sundsvall shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Östersunds FK — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
GIF Sundsvall — last 5
DDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Östersunds FK (home) | GIF Sundsvall (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-1 in 8 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-0-7 in 8 (0.5 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% |
| Top scorer | – | Hugo Aviander (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Östersunds FK or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — GIF Sundsvall or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Östersunds FK clean sheet | 31% |
| GIF Sundsvall clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Östersunds FK is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Östersunds FK are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall — FAQ
Who will win Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model makes Östersunds FK the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Östersunds FK 51%, draw 25%, GIF Sundsvall 24%.
Will both teams score in Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Östersunds FK and 1.17 for GIF Sundsvall — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Östersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Östersunds FK or draw is 65%.