Steti vs Chomutov Prediction & Preview
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 08:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 4 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Steti vs Chomutov
Model pick: Chomutov (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.19 – 3.52
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 34%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Steti | Chomutov |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 0.6 |
*Steti shown at home, Chomutov shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Steti — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Chomutov — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Steti (home) | Chomutov (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.72
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 75%
BTTS: 67%
Use these Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.19 vs 3.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (18%) |
| Double chance — Steti or draw (1X) | 5% |
| Double chance — Chomutov or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Steti clean sheet | 3% |
| Chomutov clean sheet | 83% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chomutov is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Despite playing away, Chomutov edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Steti vs Chomutov — FAQ
Who will win Steti vs Chomutov?
Our statistical model makes Chomutov the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Steti 1%, draw 7%, Chomutov 92%.
Will both teams score in Steti vs Chomutov?
The model gives a 34% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Steti vs Chomutov?
Expected goals are 0.19 for Steti and 3.52 for Chomutov — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Steti vs Chomutov?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (18%). Double chance for Steti or draw is 5%.