Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow
Model pick: Stilon Gorzow (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stilon Gorzow | Warta Gorzow |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Stilon Gorzow shown at home, Warta Gorzow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stilon Gorzow — last 5
LDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Warta Gorzow — last 5
WDDWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stilon Gorzow (home) | Warta Gorzow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 67% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Stilon Gorzow or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Warta Gorzow or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Stilon Gorzow clean sheet | 39% |
| Warta Gorzow clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stilon Gorzow is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Stilon Gorzow are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow — FAQ
Who will win Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow?
Our statistical model makes Stilon Gorzow the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Stilon Gorzow 48%, draw 27%, Warta Gorzow 25%.
Will both teams score in Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow?
Expected goals are 1.5 for Stilon Gorzow and 0.93 for Warta Gorzow — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stilon Gorzow vs Warta Gorzow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Stilon Gorzow or draw is 77%.