Stjarnan vs ÍBV Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Stjarnan vs ÍBV
Model pick: Stjarnan (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.91 – 1.02
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stjarnan | ÍBV |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Stjarnan shown at home, ÍBV shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stjarnan — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
ÍBV — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stjarnan (home) | ÍBV (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 68% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.91 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Stjarnan or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — ÍBV or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 36% |
| ÍBV clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stjarnan is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Stjarnan are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stjarnan vs ÍBV — FAQ
Who will win Stjarnan vs ÍBV?
Our statistical model makes Stjarnan the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Stjarnan 54%, draw 24%, ÍBV 22%.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs ÍBV?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stjarnan vs ÍBV?
Expected goals are 1.91 for Stjarnan and 1.02 for ÍBV — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stjarnan vs ÍBV?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Stjarnan or draw is 80%.