Stjarnan vs Keflavík Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Stjarnan vs Keflavík
Model pick: Stjarnan (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.42 – 1.24
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stjarnan | Keflavík |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*Stjarnan shown at home, Keflavík shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stjarnan — last 5
LWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Keflavík — last 5
DDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stjarnan (home) | Keflavík (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 63% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.42 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Stjarnan or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Keflavík or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 29% |
| Keflavík clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stjarnan is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Stjarnan are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stjarnan vs Keflavík — FAQ
Who will win Stjarnan vs Keflavík?
Our statistical model makes Stjarnan the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Stjarnan 59%, draw 21%, Keflavík 20%.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs Keflavík?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stjarnan vs Keflavík?
Expected goals are 2.42 for Stjarnan and 1.24 for Keflavík — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stjarnan vs Keflavík?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Stjarnan or draw is 82%.