Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri
Model pick: Stjarnan (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.21 – 0.82
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stjarnan | Thor Akureyri |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.6 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Stjarnan shown at home, Thor Akureyri shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stjarnan — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Thor Akureyri — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stjarnan (home) | Thor Akureyri (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 33% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.21 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Stjarnan or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Thor Akureyri or draw (X2) | 31% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 44% |
| Thor Akureyri clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stjarnan is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Stjarnan are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri — FAQ
Who will win Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
Our statistical model makes Stjarnan the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Stjarnan 64%, draw 19%, Thor Akureyri 17%.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
Expected goals are 2.21 for Stjarnan and 0.82 for Thor Akureyri — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Stjarnan or draw is 87%.