Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic
Model pick: Stoke City (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.85
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stoke City | Charlton Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #24 (0 pts) | #1 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Stoke City shown at home, Charlton Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stoke City — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Charlton Athletic — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stoke City (home) | Charlton Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Stoke City or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Charlton Athletic or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 43% |
| Charlton Athletic clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stoke City is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Stoke City are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic?
Our statistical model makes Stoke City the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Stoke City 44%, draw 30%, Charlton Athletic 27%.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Stoke City and 0.85 for Charlton Athletic — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Stoke City or draw is 74%.