Stourbridge vs Leamington Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Stourbridge vs Leamington
Model pick: Stourbridge (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.63 – 1.93
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stourbridge | Leamington |
|---|
| League position | #8 (7 pts) | #20 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 3.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Stourbridge shown at home, Leamington shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stourbridge — last 5
DLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Leamington — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stourbridge (home) | Leamington (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 3.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.63 vs 1.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Stourbridge or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Leamington or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Stourbridge clean sheet | 15% |
| Leamington clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stourbridge is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Stourbridge are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stourbridge vs Leamington — FAQ
Who will win Stourbridge vs Leamington?
Our statistical model makes Stourbridge the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Stourbridge 50%, draw 20%, Leamington 29%.
Will both teams score in Stourbridge vs Leamington?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stourbridge vs Leamington?
Expected goals are 2.63 for Stourbridge and 1.93 for Leamington — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stourbridge vs Leamington?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (7%). Double chance for Stourbridge or draw is 72%.