Stourbridge vs Leiston Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Stourbridge vs Leiston
Model pick: Stourbridge (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 8.59 – 5.53
Total goals: 14.1
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stourbridge | Leiston |
|---|
| League position | #5 (6 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.75 / 2.25 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Stourbridge shown at home, Leiston shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stourbridge — last 5
DLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Leiston — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stourbridge (home) | Leiston (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (8.59 vs 5.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 8-5 (5%) |
| Double chance — Stourbridge or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Leiston or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Stourbridge clean sheet | 0% |
| Leiston clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stourbridge is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Stourbridge are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 14.1, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Stourbridge vs Leiston — FAQ
Who will win Stourbridge vs Leiston?
Our statistical model makes Stourbridge the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Stourbridge 64%, draw 13%, Leiston 23%.
Will both teams score in Stourbridge vs Leiston?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stourbridge vs Leiston?
Expected goals are 8.59 for Stourbridge and 5.53 for Leiston — about 14.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stourbridge vs Leiston?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 8-5 (5%). Double chance for Stourbridge or draw is 77%.