Sturm Graz II vs Admira Prediction & Preview
1-Liga (Austria) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-LIGA (AUSTRIA)
Sturm Graz II vs Admira
Model pick: Admira (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.72
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sturm Graz II | Admira |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Sturm Graz II shown at home, Admira shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sturm Graz II — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Admira — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sturm Graz II (home) | Admira (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% |
1-Liga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 1-Liga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz II or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Admira or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Sturm Graz II clean sheet | 18% |
| Admira clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Admira is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Admira edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sturm Graz II vs Admira — FAQ
Who will win Sturm Graz II vs Admira?
Our statistical model makes Admira the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Sturm Graz II 24%, draw 24%, Admira 52%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz II vs Admira?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sturm Graz II vs Admira?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Sturm Graz II and 1.72 for Admira — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz II vs Admira?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Sturm Graz II or draw is 47%.