Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II Prediction & Preview
1-Liga (Austria) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-LIGA (AUSTRIA)
Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II
Model pick: Sturm Graz II (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.55
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sturm Graz II | Rapid Wien II |
|---|
| League position | #14 (3 pts) | #10 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Sturm Graz II shown at home, Rapid Wien II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sturm Graz II — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Rapid Wien II — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sturm Graz II (home) | Rapid Wien II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-0-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 67% |
1-Liga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.98
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 1-Liga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz II or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Rapid Wien II or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Sturm Graz II clean sheet | 21% |
| Rapid Wien II clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sturm Graz II is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Sturm Graz II are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II — FAQ
Who will win Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II?
Our statistical model makes Sturm Graz II the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Sturm Graz II 39%, draw 25%, Rapid Wien II 36%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II?
Expected goals are 1.63 for Sturm Graz II and 1.55 for Rapid Wien II — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Sturm Graz II or draw is 63%.