Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau
Model pick: Sturm Graz (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.44 – 0.73
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sturm Graz | Austria Lustenau |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #6 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Sturm Graz shown at home, Austria Lustenau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sturm Graz — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Austria Lustenau — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sturm Graz (home) | Austria Lustenau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Seedy Jatta (1) | – |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.44 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Austria Lustenau or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 48% |
| Austria Lustenau clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sturm Graz is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Sturm Graz are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau — FAQ
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model makes Sturm Graz the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Sturm Graz 70%, draw 18%, Austria Lustenau 11%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Expected goals are 2.44 for Sturm Graz and 0.73 for Austria Lustenau — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Sturm Graz or draw is 91%.