Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Prediction & Preview
UEFA Champions League (Europe) · Aug 11, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
Model pick: Fenerbahçe (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.13 – 1.42
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sturm Graz | Fenerbahçe |
|---|
| League position | #6 (1 pts) | #19 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 2.0 / 0.4 |
*Sturm Graz shown at home, Fenerbahçe shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sturm Graz — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Fenerbahçe — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sturm Graz (home) | Fenerbahçe (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% |
UEFA Champions League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.92
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 53%
Use these UEFA Champions League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.13 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (30%) |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz or draw (1X) | 29% |
| Double chance — Fenerbahçe or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 24% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 88% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fenerbahçe is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, Fenerbahçe edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe — FAQ
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model makes Fenerbahçe the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Sturm Graz 18%, draw 26%, Fenerbahçe 56%.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
Expected goals are 0.13 for Sturm Graz and 1.42 for Fenerbahçe — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (30%). Double chance for Sturm Graz or draw is 29%.