Stuttgart vs Köln Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Stuttgart vs Köln
Model pick: Stuttgart (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.17 – 1.17
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stuttgart | Köln |
|---|
| League position | #11 (15 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.8 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 1.6 | 3.4 / 1.2 |
*Stuttgart shown at home, Köln shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stuttgart — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Köln — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stuttgart (home) | Köln (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (2.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% |
Bundesliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Bundesliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.17 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Stuttgart or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Köln or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Stuttgart clean sheet | 31% |
| Köln clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stuttgart is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Stuttgart are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stuttgart vs Köln — FAQ
Who will win Stuttgart vs Köln?
Our statistical model makes Stuttgart the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Stuttgart 62%, draw 20%, Köln 18%.
Will both teams score in Stuttgart vs Köln?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stuttgart vs Köln?
Expected goals are 2.17 for Stuttgart and 1.17 for Köln — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stuttgart vs Köln?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Stuttgart or draw is 80%.