Sulow vs Warta Gorzow Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Sulow vs Warta Gorzow
Model pick: Sulow (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.88 – 0.68
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sulow | Warta Gorzow |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Sulow shown at home, Warta Gorzow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sulow — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Warta Gorzow — last 5
DLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sulow (home) | Warta Gorzow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.88 vs 0.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sulow or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Warta Gorzow or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Sulow clean sheet | 51% |
| Warta Gorzow clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sulow is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Sulow are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sulow vs Warta Gorzow — FAQ
Who will win Sulow vs Warta Gorzow?
Our statistical model makes Sulow the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Sulow 77%, draw 15%, Warta Gorzow 8%.
Will both teams score in Sulow vs Warta Gorzow?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sulow vs Warta Gorzow?
Expected goals are 2.88 for Sulow and 0.68 for Warta Gorzow — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sulow vs Warta Gorzow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Sulow or draw is 94%.